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Second quarter non-ferrous metals is still downward pressure on the larger speci

Update:2014-03-15 08:35:52Clicks:875Secondary
Social business publication , in March 2013 , BCI index of commodity supply and demand is -0.61 , -2.79 % average increase , indicating that the manufacturing economy compared with February showing a contraction, there are downside risks to the economy .

Among them, eight plates BCI monitoring commodity business community , the largest decline in rubber plate, a decrease of -4.13 %, followed by iron and steel , down -3.48 %, only building materials sector rose , rose to 0.76 percent . Some analysts pointed out that in April of commodity prices will have to pick up, but the overall market continued to show a downward trend.

Market rose more or less

Social business monitoring data show that in March , China's commodity markets rose more or less , 58 kinds of commodities chart, 24.14% of the rose varieties , 75.86% of the species decline.

Among them, the chain increased by a total of 14 kinds of commodities , mainly in the chemical sector ( total of 4 ) and the textile sector ( total of 4 ) , or the top three commodities were crude oil WTI (7.46%), polymeric MDI (3.13%) , building materials ( 2.11% ) . A decline of 44 kinds of commodities , mainly in energy ( 8 species) , rubber ( 8 species) and steel ( 8 species) , or the top three commodities were SBR 1502 ( -11.30 % ) , benzene ( East China ) ( -10.51 % ) , butadiene rubber ( -10.47 % ) .

It is noteworthy that China commodities Change imbalance , while the rates are quite different ups and downs , of which 13 species fell more than 5% , 4 varieties fell more than 10 percent , only two species or more than 3% , 58 rose varieties are down -2.58 %.

Social business LiuXinTian chief analyst , said in March , China's stock market slump in commodities are " reasonable, unexpected ," supply and demand commodity markets still exist . On the one hand , the contradiction between supply and demand in commodity markets still exist, excess capacity and weak demand makes 1,2 month died early spring market . On the other hand , compared with market expectations of a sharp correction in commodity prices has come earlier spot , but larger decreases .

Previously, the industry estimates , China's commodity market crash will occur in April and May , and in early March the market to break the horizon , which means the accumulation of 1,2 month " bonus " has been lost.

Prices to new lows

Analysts pointed out that in 2013 , due to the macro- risk events such as the European debt crisis -prone , coupled with the growth of China's economy is still weak , commodity markets is difficult to get out , " Indian summer ."

A quarter of the world's gold, crude oil and other commodities are either first low to high , or high-low , frequent shocks . Among them, the gold slid into the low six months ago , while crude oil at 90 to 100 dollars a barrel shock and forth , the cumulative seasonal Copper fell nearly 5 percent , the dollar index unexpectedly rushed 83 points high.

In fact , a quarter of China's commodity index of commodity prices and overall performance accumulated more than 3 %. Driven by optimistic expectations for economic growth , in January , the international and domestic commodity markets continued upward. However, as the European debt crisis worries warming , and the impact of weakening economic data again surrounding the financial markets and other factors, primarily commodity prices down quickly . Up to now, most of the major commodity prices pared earlier gains, hitting a new low for months .

Among them, the decline in the futures market performance even worse. Data show that a quarter of copper metal market leading varieties Xianyanghouyi . Data show that in July 2012 , the Shanghai Futures Exchange copper futures prices for delivery once ascribed to above 60,000 yuan per ton , while the 2013 first quarter ended , the price has dropped to below 55,000 yuan per ton , compared with 2012 cumulative in the fourth quarter fell by more than 5 %, which is three quarters to one- quarter, the largest decline .

Meanwhile , the spot commodity markets also suffer, despite the spot price point than the futures market fell by extension, the futures market declines are more modest , but in March the crash makes the spot market in January and February rose across the board taking. Social business data show that in March , China's 58 kinds of major commodities , more than 75 percent of species decline , the price index tracking the performance of a single month than in February fell by a total of more than 3%.

Outlook is put to the test

Social business chief analyst Liu Xintian analysis of commodity markets downward deceleration main reasons is that both raw materials and downstream terminals are formed on commodity volatility constraints . The basic raw materials, from 1 to 3 months , the cumulative decline in several species of Raw materials are far less than other commodities , crude oil , coal, iron ore etc limited decline. Among them, the crude oil WTI, currently with the New Year's Day when the iron ore price is roughly equal , is $ 92 per barrel of crude oil , iron ore is 939 yuan / ton, steam coal fell by less than 2.5 %.

The downstream end , the majority of the decline is also less than the commodity chain on the middle reaches of varieties, but the basic raw speed down , downstream terminal decline weaker midstream breed is a characteristic round down . LiuXinTian predicted slowdown is probably temporary, once the market looking to fall "leading" , may at any time have accelerated .

According to the business community research shows that over 70% of our employees did not lose confidence in the commodity market outlook , while more than 80 percent of the analysts bullish on the market in April . There are three main reasons : First, in April including rubber , nonferrous metals and most other industries traditional small season, February and March compared to the demand side or has changed . Second, a significant proportion of corporate overhaul came in April , the supply pressure will be reduced. Third, many companies are currently struggling in terms of cost , pushing pull up a " straw" , pull up , or will focus on the outbreak in April .

Liu Xintian that , in April , given the slump in commodities in March , the number of overdraft bad. Therefore, as the factors appearing shopping season , commodity markets or will be warmer. However, substantial improvements in market supply and demand factors that are subject to other aspects of the follow-up to the market or will continue to face challenges.

Some analysts expected, due to weak economic growth, sustained recovery in commodity markets or still needs further improvement in economic conditions. However , in April , commodity market prices is not iron nails . Even in April has been warmer in commodity prices , does not alter the downward trend of the overall market . Analysts said the overall signs of stabilization in the global economy is uncertain , expected in the second quarter , commodities will remain vulnerable to run , including steel, coke, coking coal , glass , nonferrous metals and rubber , plastics , PTA , etc. are still greater downward pressure species.